From: Kevin Shaw
Sent: Friday, October 21, 2005 12:18 PM
Subject: NOAA's seasonal forecast outlook

On the chance you missed it, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released seasonal outlooks
yesterday, predicting that, for the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than the
30-year norm but cooler than last winter. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected across
most of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, Hawaii, and northwestern Alaska.
Since NOAA staff are users in addition to being providers for the nation, you might find this
information helpful. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center first presented the winter forecast on
October 12 at the 2005-2006 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, DC. Hosted by
the National Association of State Energy Officials, this annual conference examines world oil
supplies and provides price outlooks for the winter heating season, underscoring the key role
NOAA plays in the energy industry’s operational planning. Yesterday's seasonal outlook also
included a U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook through January.
 
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2525.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

Recognizing the demand for more precise seasonal outlooks, the Climate Prediction Center has
formed a “Climate Test Bed,” a collaborative scientific effort among the operational, academic
and research communities. The aim is to accelerate the transfer of atmospheric and oceanic
research and development into operational climate forecasts, products and applications.
Currently the Climate Test Bed is focused on maximizing the use of the NOAA Climate Forecast
System model in combination with other climate forecast tools for the purpose of improving
U.S. seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks.
 
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/ctb/